In Resolving Africa’s Energy Poverty – ALL Options Remain on the Table Africa’s energy poverty is now a national security crisis. The region’s large and growing population places relentless pressure on small and dwindling resources, exacerbating the crisis of diminished state capacity. The specter of social and political disruption haunts regional stability, from coastal West Africa to the Great Lakes. Africa’s poverty translates into weak economic resilience and heightened vulnerability to shocks – internal and external. The recent spate of global crises has only worsened the problem. After decades of improvement, the World Bank reports that inequality is rising – that the global poor bore the brunt of the economic scarring of the pandemic, with incomes falling in the poorest countries more than they did in rich countries. “As a result, the income losses of the world’s poorest were twice as high as the world’s richest, and global inequality rose for the first time in decades.”
Because we don't have a choice...Is it unfair, absolutely, but we are first line to suffer the consequences of climate change (Africa, I mean). Some studies say at this rate Africa will be unsustainable by 2050. Sure I take some of those studies with a grain of salt because of their origin, but if they are right, that is a future I do not want to live in.
This post has my mind swirling especially because my perspective has always been opposite of yours--that Africa should find ways of balancing its industrial needs with environmental obligations.
Still, you make such valid points that I need to pause here, reread this post, do my own research then come back and give a balanced reaction.
See you soon🙂 P.S It is messing with my brain that you almost changed my mind, knowing how big of a climate justice person I am🤦🏽♀️
Bauxite is mined using thermal Sierra Leone. There are plenty of opportunities to process Bauxite, and even on a renewable basis, but honestly I think it is an issue with energy sector management more than donors - the CLSG line is not far from Sierra Rutile and Vimetco, you can buy gas power from Cote DIvoire, hydro power from Guinea and Liberia, DFC have funded thermal in SL, but actually getting that line down to the South, ensuring market players are paid on time is all taking decades, lets see if MCC works out. To then go the next step and invest in processing facilities seems a like a spring over the core issue of whether energy sectors in the potential processors can actually stabilize. The new SL government has lots of great technocrats, so lets hope so, but hte issue is really in their hands to decide how they want thier energy sectors to look like and create a bureaucracy that can implement it. Ditto in Katanga region, its primarily a transmisison issue, plus hydro issues in Zambia.
I really have no interest in mining or low level extractive activity. We have been doing these sort of things since the 60s. It is largely siloed and barely connected to the real economy. What efficiencies we've seen have been increasing capital-intensity and the reduction of labor in mining. I agree 100% that governance of the energy sector - from planning to maintenance of available power is important. Co-planning with processors about what to bring on line and when will be important to support smelting. But my concern is the quantum of installed capacity and transmission. Sierra Leone was planning to reach 350 MW of installed capacity in 2023. You can add value to cassava and cocoa with these low levels of power, 350 MW in total installed capacity is not the basis of a conversation on aluminum smelting. There are aluminum smelters that use 950 MW on their own. As you probably know, installed capacity includes redundant equipment to account for maintenance and breakdowns. We don't have anywhere near the installed capacity for any meaningful smelting capacity in West Africa.
I should also add that it is not just about smelting. Your power has to be cheap enough to compete with smelters in India and China (who are using coal-power plants). Coal is the dirtiest burning fossil fuel, but also the cheapest. One of the reasons bitcoin miners flocked to Inner Mongolia in China was because of the heavily subsidized power there. Part of Chinese industrial policy is to subsidize infrastructure - transport and power. The amount of power required for any meaningful play in smelting is not available on the CLSG or in any of its member states.
Thanks, i wasnt aware of how energy intensive it is. I only know about the grid in SL. To hit those sort of levels it only makes sense then surely to talk about the few countries that have access to large gas reserves that can be retrieied cheaply? Its not a long list. Small countries like SL, Liberia etc. are going to have to import power and make cross country transition lines work, but not for big loads.
I am curious @michael, so you think it is possible to industrialize without resorting to fossils if only African governments can figure out energy sector management? Any ideas on how that can happen practically?
Sometimes - but it is very country dependant, and i only know the countries I know - Kenya already has. Nigeria in contrast I just can't see it - abundantly cheap gas, huge location mismatches with Solar in North, hydro far in South East, huge transmisison backlogs - new government is doing well, but always the risk of a new government runnign subsidies everywhere and breaking the sector. SL in contrast probably could, they just cant get their management of the tranmission lines right. DRC yes, hydro heaven, but reforming SNEL is a huge task.
Yeah, I am Kenyan and 80% of our energy is renewable and about 3/4 of the population has electricity. Our electricity is hella expensive though and I hear people argue it will not be sustainable when Kenya makes a serious charge into industrialization.
See the reason I asked you this is I have always thought it is possible for Africa to build a low carbon industrial future from the ground up. Especially when you read some statistics like " when the hydropower of DRC is fully exploited it can light half the continent"
But this article especially with all the references has me thinking maybe I am too optimistic. Glad to see someone else who kinda thinks like me but as you said it is country-specific. I will research on the other countries you mentioned.
Kenya is not so expensive and you arent sitting on some gigantic natural (carbon) resource, it is jut not too subsidized! 23c right now for domestic, I pay 30c+ in Germany.
The most generic answer I have to the solution is end subsidies except limited lifeline tariffs, make sure everyone is getting paid, and let the private sector sort it out (with cheap financing for renwables) or accept it isn't politically feasible and go the statist solution route ala Magafuli. But those are democratic questions, not technical ones and i have no idea how governments will get to those decisions.
Interesting, I like the idea of cheap financing for renewables, thanks for the response. I will dig into these ideas more and maybe write a paper or a blog post🙂
Why do we have to be the first though? Let the countries that have contributed the most to climate change lead the way in smelting ores using renewables.
Because we don't have a choice...Is it unfair, absolutely, but we are first line to suffer the consequences of climate change (Africa, I mean). Some studies say at this rate Africa will be unsustainable by 2050. Sure I take some of those studies with a grain of salt because of their origin, but if they are right, that is a future I do not want to live in.
This post has my mind swirling especially because my perspective has always been opposite of yours--that Africa should find ways of balancing its industrial needs with environmental obligations.
Still, you make such valid points that I need to pause here, reread this post, do my own research then come back and give a balanced reaction.
See you soon🙂 P.S It is messing with my brain that you almost changed my mind, knowing how big of a climate justice person I am🤦🏽♀️
Bauxite is mined using thermal Sierra Leone. There are plenty of opportunities to process Bauxite, and even on a renewable basis, but honestly I think it is an issue with energy sector management more than donors - the CLSG line is not far from Sierra Rutile and Vimetco, you can buy gas power from Cote DIvoire, hydro power from Guinea and Liberia, DFC have funded thermal in SL, but actually getting that line down to the South, ensuring market players are paid on time is all taking decades, lets see if MCC works out. To then go the next step and invest in processing facilities seems a like a spring over the core issue of whether energy sectors in the potential processors can actually stabilize. The new SL government has lots of great technocrats, so lets hope so, but hte issue is really in their hands to decide how they want thier energy sectors to look like and create a bureaucracy that can implement it. Ditto in Katanga region, its primarily a transmisison issue, plus hydro issues in Zambia.
I really have no interest in mining or low level extractive activity. We have been doing these sort of things since the 60s. It is largely siloed and barely connected to the real economy. What efficiencies we've seen have been increasing capital-intensity and the reduction of labor in mining. I agree 100% that governance of the energy sector - from planning to maintenance of available power is important. Co-planning with processors about what to bring on line and when will be important to support smelting. But my concern is the quantum of installed capacity and transmission. Sierra Leone was planning to reach 350 MW of installed capacity in 2023. You can add value to cassava and cocoa with these low levels of power, 350 MW in total installed capacity is not the basis of a conversation on aluminum smelting. There are aluminum smelters that use 950 MW on their own. As you probably know, installed capacity includes redundant equipment to account for maintenance and breakdowns. We don't have anywhere near the installed capacity for any meaningful smelting capacity in West Africa.
I should also add that it is not just about smelting. Your power has to be cheap enough to compete with smelters in India and China (who are using coal-power plants). Coal is the dirtiest burning fossil fuel, but also the cheapest. One of the reasons bitcoin miners flocked to Inner Mongolia in China was because of the heavily subsidized power there. Part of Chinese industrial policy is to subsidize infrastructure - transport and power. The amount of power required for any meaningful play in smelting is not available on the CLSG or in any of its member states.
Thanks, i wasnt aware of how energy intensive it is. I only know about the grid in SL. To hit those sort of levels it only makes sense then surely to talk about the few countries that have access to large gas reserves that can be retrieied cheaply? Its not a long list. Small countries like SL, Liberia etc. are going to have to import power and make cross country transition lines work, but not for big loads.
I am curious @michael, so you think it is possible to industrialize without resorting to fossils if only African governments can figure out energy sector management? Any ideas on how that can happen practically?
im not sure if you see an alternative? I jsut dont see that many countries where people/politics feel like environmental issues are there's to solve
Sometimes - but it is very country dependant, and i only know the countries I know - Kenya already has. Nigeria in contrast I just can't see it - abundantly cheap gas, huge location mismatches with Solar in North, hydro far in South East, huge transmisison backlogs - new government is doing well, but always the risk of a new government runnign subsidies everywhere and breaking the sector. SL in contrast probably could, they just cant get their management of the tranmission lines right. DRC yes, hydro heaven, but reforming SNEL is a huge task.
Yeah, I am Kenyan and 80% of our energy is renewable and about 3/4 of the population has electricity. Our electricity is hella expensive though and I hear people argue it will not be sustainable when Kenya makes a serious charge into industrialization.
See the reason I asked you this is I have always thought it is possible for Africa to build a low carbon industrial future from the ground up. Especially when you read some statistics like " when the hydropower of DRC is fully exploited it can light half the continent"
But this article especially with all the references has me thinking maybe I am too optimistic. Glad to see someone else who kinda thinks like me but as you said it is country-specific. I will research on the other countries you mentioned.
Kenya is not so expensive and you arent sitting on some gigantic natural (carbon) resource, it is jut not too subsidized! 23c right now for domestic, I pay 30c+ in Germany.
Kenya in the middle field.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/263492/electricity-prices-in-selected-countries/
The most generic answer I have to the solution is end subsidies except limited lifeline tariffs, make sure everyone is getting paid, and let the private sector sort it out (with cheap financing for renwables) or accept it isn't politically feasible and go the statist solution route ala Magafuli. But those are democratic questions, not technical ones and i have no idea how governments will get to those decisions.
Interesting, I like the idea of cheap financing for renewables, thanks for the response. I will dig into these ideas more and maybe write a paper or a blog post🙂
Why do we have to be the first though? Let the countries that have contributed the most to climate change lead the way in smelting ores using renewables.